How scoring works

How an answer is scored

When a question's outcome is known, each answer gets a score from 0 to 100 and points to match. A question with two parts, such as revenue and earnings per share, scores each part as half.

Some questions also ask how sure you are, from 0 to 100%. That number is saved with your answer and builds your calibration curve. It never changes your score, your points or your tier.

Your skill score

Your skill score is the average of your scored answers from the last 90 days, each measured against a 50-point baseline, with recent answers counting more. Above zero means your answers score better than the baseline; below zero, worse.

It appears once at least 10 of your answers have resolved in that window. Until then your record is provisional and shows only how many answers have counted.

Tiers

Tiers run Novice, Apprentice, Forecaster, Expert and Master. While your record is provisional you are a Novice. After that your skill score sets your tier: Apprentice from 0, Forecaster from 0.15, Expert from 0.35 and Master from 0.5.

A small dip just below a threshold does not drop you a tier straight away; you keep your tier while you stay within 0.025 of it. If 30 days pass without a newly scored answer, your skill score fades a little each week until you answer again.

Calibration

Your calibration curve compares how sure you said you were with how often you were right. A price forecast is right when it is within its question's tolerance of the final price, such as 0.50%. Answers are grouped into five bands: 0–20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80% and 80–100%.

A band shows how often its answers were right once your record is past provisional and the band holds at least 3 answers. On the diagonal, how sure you said you were matches how often you were right. Below it, you were more confident than your results supported.

Leaderboards

Leaderboards rank forecasters by skill score each week, from Monday 00:00 UTC. To be ranked you need an active record with at least 10 resolved answers in the last 90 days, and you must have chosen to appear. Exact ties share a rank. A leaderboard shows each forecaster's rank, tier and resolved answers, but not their skill score, so boards can't be compared to work out a single answer.

The monthly leaderboard ranks the points you earn in a calendar month, from the 1st at 00:00 UTC, and starts again at zero each month. Anyone with points that month is ranked, unless their record is under review, and only forecasters who chose to appear are shown. A correction counts in the month it is made, so a month that has ended doesn't change. It shows rank, tier and resolved answers, never points. You can see your own points on your leaderboard standing.

If you sign in with a school email and choose to show your school, you appear when a leaderboard is filtered to your school, with the same rank you hold on the whole leaderboard. School standings rank schools by the average monthly points of their best 10 forecasters who show the school, once at least 5 of them have points that month.

Public profiles

A public profile is off until you turn it on. It shows your tier, skill score, rank, how many of your answers have resolved, how many were right in the last 90 days, your calibration curve and your scores by question type. It lists a question type only once at least 3 of your answers of that type have resolved. It never shows a single answer. You can turn it off at any time.

Community views

After a question resolves, its community view shows how forecasters answered. Only active forecasters at Forecaster tier or above are counted, each weighted by their reputation.

A view appears only when at least 5 eligible forecasters answered and no single forecaster carries more than 40% of the weight. Otherwise the count and the split stay hidden.

Corrections

If a result is corrected, scores, points, records, rankings and community views are worked out again. Earlier versions are kept with the reason for the change.